Democrats last week lost a state Senate special election in Georgia. They lost both Special Elections for House seats in Florida back in April. I know there are others that they have lost as well. I believe what Eisen probably meant is that Democrats have over-performed in 43 of 43 special elections by an average of 16 points. In the 2 Florida elections, the Democrats were significantly closer than the general elections in November 2024 and the margins were significantly closer than the margins for Kamala Harris in the same districts.
This article from a couple days ago said "in about 40 special elections since President Trump was elected last November, Democrats have overperformed their prior margins by an average of about 15%"
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/25/nx-s1-5548589/ken-martin-democrats-special-election-overperformance
DNC chair says special elections show Democrats are winning, even when they lose
ALPHARETTA, Ga. — Why is the head of the Democratic National Committee in a suburban Atlanta coffee shop on a random Saturday in September?
"We've got a really important state Senate special election here in Senate District 21, which we are investing in," DNC Chairman Ken Martin said last week. "And we believe we have a real shot at winning."
In the special election runoff Tuesday, Sep. 23, Democrats did not flip the deep-red seat. But Martin and others in the party view it as a win because the Democratic candidate, Debra Shigley, improved the party's margin by double digits from November.
Still, in an interview with NPR before this week's elections, Martin said the Democratic Party is energized and voters are expressing enthusiasm after the party's defeat in November that saw them lose the White House and control of the Senate.
While nothing is guaranteed, G. Elliot Morris has found there is typically a correlation between the results of special elections and the results of the subsequent midterm elections.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-are-winning-special-elections
And while democrats have done well in Special Elections before (particularly in 2017 & 2018 which translated into a blue wave in the 2018 midterms), they're doing better than ever now.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/10/politics/democrats-special-elections-trump
Democrats are doing better than ever in Trump-era special elections
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In fact, Democrats are over-performing in special elections more than they ever have in the Trump era — dating back to his first term.
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Democrats went on to flip more than 40 House seats in the 2018 general election, their biggest gains in a single election since Watergate.
But those years were also more off a mixed bag, with Democrats occasionally under-performing in other races.
Democrats wound up over-performing by an average of eight points in 2017 and 16 points in 2018, per the University of Virginia analysis. They’re over-performing by an average of more than 18 points so far in 2025.
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