Iran Reportedly Closes Strait of Hormuz, the World's Most Vital Oil Export Route

[orangecrush]

The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency said it received multiple reports from vessels in the Gulf that they had been notified of the Strait of Hormuz's closure. There was no immediate confirmation from Iran.

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2026-02-28/ty-article/.premium/iran-reportedly-closes-strait-of-hormuz-the-worlds-most-vital-oil-export-route/0000019c-a528-defa-abdf-bffd65440000

"Severe Conflict: If the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial oil chokepoint—is closed, oil prices could spike above $100
per barrel, with some projections reaching $120 - $150
per barrel, according to analysts cited by Fortune and ICIS.
Retail Impact: This could drive the average price of a gallon of gas to over $5, based on analysis from Fortune and AOL.com."

-Google AI

[EX500rider]

1. Claims to close & close are 2 different things. nt

[orangecrush]

2. Iran's revolutionary guards tell ships passage through Strait of Hormuz 'not allowed', EU naval mission official says

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-tell-ships-passage-through-strait-hormuz-not-allowed-2026-02-28/

[EX500rider]

4. yes that is claiming it's closed, does not mean it is

[Another Jackalope]

12. However, it means that no tanker captain in his right mind

will risk his vessel on a transit. Would you accept that the strait is "effectively" closed? What would be different in an "actual" closure?

[orangecrush]

3. "Tankers Divert From Strait of Hormuz"

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-strikes-2026/card/tankers-divert-from-strait-of-hormuz-6iO60V0aInRLC0or9b0P

[EX500rider]

6. Sure, it's a hot war zone but does not mean the straights are closed just because Iran says so

Unless they mine it or attack every ship that tries to pass it is just hot air

[orangecrush]

7. Would I be correct

To assume that if no shipping is passing through, it is for all practical purposes closed?

Not trying to be argumentive, it's not something I know much about.

[EX500rider]

25. Tankers diverting to be cautious isn't the same as no shipping passing through we shall see

[orangecrush]

27. Thank you

And I hope you are right.

[sarisataka]

30. Diverting where?

There is only one entrance/exit to the Persian Gulf.

[EX500rider]

37. Diverting to somewhere that's not an active war zone

[sarisataka]

39. Which means

The Strait is effectively closed.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. No. Commercial ships do not just say "damn the torpedoes" and sail to see what happens

A credible threat from a state known to have the necessary armaments, and no compunction in killing, will have an effect. And no, they don't have to attack every ship.

[Disaffected]

8. Seems simple enough.

Just sink a tanker when it is passing through the narrow part.

But hey! This could solve Alberta's gov't deficit problem.

[EX500rider]

26. There is no part in narrow enough where one tanker could block it

[Disaffected]

31. Then sink the next one.

Repeat as necessary. Just the threat however may be sufficient.

https://www.unclosdebate.org/evidence/2041/iran-has-technological-means-and-strategy-block-strait-hormuz

[EX500rider]

33. The narrowest part of the straight is 21 miles

With the shipping Lane itself being about 2 mi wide.

I doubt Iran will do anything serious to shut it off, it would piss off one of their few allies China who gets 50 to 60% of their oil out of the Persian Gulf

[Disaffected]

35. The point is,

it doesn't have to be physically blocked. Just the threat, perhaps with a demonstration sinking or two, might be enough. Iran certainly has the firepower to do it.

As well, the fanaticism that currently governs Iran is more than enough to cause serious concern it might well happen.

[EX500rider]

42. They can but then they risk all the neighboring countries in the Gulf joining the war

It also risk losing popular support worldwide as it doesn't really affect the US or Israel directly

[Disaffected]

43. They are already bombing neighbouring countries

so attacking shipping in the straight would only be an escalation.

Stopping oil shipping through the straight would most definitely affect the US (and many other countries) as the price of crude would spike.

[multigraincracker]

5. Yeah, but the DOW WAS over 50,000.

[Ocelot II]

9. Fifty thousand *dollars*!

[Swede]

15. How DARE you!!!!!

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. UKMTO advisory:

[Greg_In_SF]

13. The Straight

is not closed.

Any marine tracker website will show you this. There are plenty of ships crossing the straight right this very minute.

[madville]

16. Here's a decent one

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.2/centery:25.7/zoom:6


Crude oil tankers are passing through right now.

[madville]

14. Shipping traffic will still go through

Most likely with a Navy escort. They can try to close it but it won’t end well for them.

[Greg_In_SF]

17. Yep

if they even attempted to go place mines right now, they would be destroyed.

[Ilsa]

18. Gas up now in case there are shortages?

I remember the shortages in the 1970s.

[madville]

19. We only get 10% of our crude oil from the ME.

Less than that comes through the strait. It won’t have that much impact here.

[orangecrush]

21. I remember 5 bucks a gallon

Last time this happened.

[Ilsa]

23. I guess the oil companies use it as an excuse to jack prices at the pump. nt

[orangecrush]

24. You mean it's not supply and demand????

[Swede]

29. And the expensive oil will be in the pipeline for months after the new oil starts flowing.

[Ilsa]

22. Thank you. nt (Phew!)

[AZJonnie]

28. The problem is, there is NO "WE" in this scenario because "our" oil industry is not nationalized

If 1/5 the WORLD'S oil exported supply was choked off, the WORLD'S price of crude would skyrocket. And then the US companies will sell "ours" to the world (which includes the USA) at highly inflated prices.

Also, 10% is a MASSIVE freaking amount when it comes to pricing pressure.

[madville]

34. Prices can increase, sure

But we wouldn’t likely see the type of gas shortages that the OP is concerned with and I was replying to. Higher prices help prevent shortages and also help the environment so higher prices aren’t all negative. When prices go up people drive and travel less, airlines cut a few routes, etc, etc. It balances out pretty quickly.

[AZJonnie]

36. You said "impact" not "shortages" so that's what I was responding to, as prices would be included in "impact"

But I still think you're making an assumption that is not necessarily true. "US" oil companies are not "ours", unless the government acts to nationalize them (which I suppose could happen). Yes, the USA has the physical ability to keep the pumps on due to production on our own shores, but the greedy oil companies are currently free to sell to the higher bidders, in the WORLD as things currently stand.

IMHO, if the Straits were significantly choked off, I suspect we could have $150/barrel world oil in a matter of days or weeks, and gas prices in the $6-7 range in the USA even sooner, unless the government acted to stop US producers from selling to anyone but US markets/consumers.

I concede I'm not an expert and there could be valid counterarguments to what I've said, but I believe the above to be accurate, except as noted as a guess/opinion

[madville]

38. And I was responding directly to someone

Talking about shortages, that’s the impact in that thought. You are free to interpret it however or as broadly as you want of course, I know what I meant (shrug).

Either way, Higher prices could happen and if they do it would quickly mitigate any potential shortage.

[AZJonnie]

40. All good mate I should've looked closer at the context, I'm just saying what I was responding to

With any luck it's a moot point as the Straits won't be seriously blocked. Though as you mention, it might be better for the PLANET if it were!

[orangecrush]

20. Highly advisable

Keep it full.

[womanofthehills]

32. Now ships are avoiding the Red Sea

Because of Houthi’s threats.AI reported most large companies diverting from Red Sea.

[ForgedCrank]

41. If Iran

even attempted to do that, it would be very short-lived and cost them dearly.
With growlers and ea-37's lurking in the area, they don't dare even light up their arrays. Talk about gone in 60 seconds.
Our systems aren't bulletproof, but our capabilities are diabolical level compared to our adversaries.