The Next Coup Attempt - And How to Stop It -- Timothy Snyder

[erronis]

https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-next-coup-attempt

We are seven months away from the most consequential midterm election in the history of the United States. Meanwhile, we are fighting a war. These are the structural conditions for a coup attempt in which a president tries to nullify elections and take permanent power as a dictator. If we see this, we can stop it, overcome the movement that brought us to this point, and make a turn towards something better.

President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Pete Hegseth are stuck in the logic of escalation, according to which the feeling of defeat today can be reversed by doing the first thing that comes to mind tomorrow. Trump is surrounded by people who are making money from the war; each day of war strengthens a warmongering lobby with personal access to the president. As the war lengthens, the chance that it will be exploited for a coup attempt increases.

. . .

We are not spectators of this unfolding drama. We are actors inside every scenario. And "we" means journalists who report, judges who follow the law, servicemen and servicewomen who follow the Constitution, and above all citizens who organize, protest and vote. If we know the coup scripts in advance, we know when to take the stage -- and where to take the rage.

. . .

A coup attempt is not at all unthinkable; Trump has done it before, and he makes it very clear that he is thinking about it now. When we think about it now, about how it might take shape, we make it less likely; indeed, we deter it. Knowledge of history can change the future. If we remember what history shows us is possible, we can prevent a coup from succeeding -- and turn any such attempt against its instigator.

[jmbar2]

1. The most important post on DU this morning - K&R

Last edited Sat Apr 4, 2026, 12:24 PM - Edit history (1)

The first thing I woke up to this morning was wondering if Kegsbreath is gonna try a coup d'etat. And if so, what then?

Thank you for this article. The comments section is worth reading as well.

[ABC123Easy]

5. Holdup.....Kegsbreath?

Do you mean he would overthrow Dolt45? Or do you mean takeover and install Dolt45 as dictator?

[jmbar2]

8. I think he's counting on Dolt45 to take the dirt nap soon, and wants to take over.

Of course he'll have to fight JD and Marco for the title, but he's just power-hungry enough to think he can command the military to do the work for him.

[ABC123Easy]

10. Okay, makes sense.

Honestly, I'd never considered that scenario. I picture Kegsbreath as too stupid and survile, to pursue anything like that. I'd assume, perhaps incorrectly, that his drunk, frat bro ass would just screw up any attempt but you never know!

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. He may try, but he will fail

Nothing can stop the Blue Tsunami in November.

Snyder makes a good case that the odds of Trump succeeding in a coup are poor, but we must be prepared to contain the chaos resulting from his desperate attempts:

The eventuality can seem frightening, but Trump’s position is weak. The gambit of turning a foreign war into a domestic dictatorship is complicated and difficult. Its success depends on us. If the possibility of such a coup is not anticipated and the variants of the gambit are not called out as they emerge, he can succeed. He has attempted a coup (or, technically, a self-coup) once, in January 2021 -- there is no reason to think that he will not try to do so again.

-snip-

Trump is weak, but weakness only matters if it is treated as vulnerability and pushed towards defeat. He will try to make his weak position strong, which will expose further vulnerabilities that have to be seen and exploited. All of his policies make him vulnerable; the war in particular makes him vulnerable; and any gambit to exploit that war should make him and his party easy to defeat and discredit his authoritarian movement forever.

A coup attempt is not at all unthinkable; Trump has done it before, and he makes it very clear that he is thinking about it now. When we think about it now, about how it might take shape, we make it less likely; indeed, we deter it. Knowledge of history can change the future. If we remember what history shows us is possible, we can prevent a coup from succeeding -- and turn any such attempt against its instigator.

[jmbar2]

3. This disastrous era will require a massive period of rebuilding, reimagining America

I'm thinking it could become a very good thing for younger folks if we can survive until elections.

Rehiring millions of professionals who were laid off, refunding programs that were dismantled, rewriting the tax laws, and clawing back from billionaires responsible for such waste.

Handled well, it could be an FDR-type era, which would be very good for America's huge population of un- and underemployed college grads.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. I agree, an FDR type New Deal effort will be required to repair the damage and restore lost rights

But none of that will be possible unless the court is expanded, and the filibuster is killed to do so.

That makes the election of courageous Democrats, especially in the senate, critical in both 2026 and 2028.

[IL Dem]

6. Hegseth is not Sec of State. nt

[erronis]

7. Yes - I saw that - probably should note it in the OP.

[yellow dahlia]

9. When Timothy Snyder speaks, I listen.

Thanks for sharing.