CA-GOV: Republican drops from top spot in California governor's race

[RandySF]

Democrat Xavier Becerra overtook Republican Steve Hilton late Friday in the California’s governor’s primary race, clearing the way for Becerra to advance to the general election in November even as the battle for second place drags on.

Hilton had maintained a sizable lead in early votes released Tuesday night, but Hilton’s lead evaporated as California officials continued counting votes throughout the week. The Associated Press determined on Friday that Becerra would advance after he overtook Hilton.

Becerra’s opponent in the general election is still to be determined. Fellow Democrat Tom Steyer has steadily been increasing in vote counts throughout the week, and experts still consider the race between Steyer and Hilton too close to call.

Hilton was still beating Steyer by over 330,000 votes Friday, making it hard for the Democrat to climb into second place. However, the New York Times estimated Friday evening that only 67% of votes had been counted, meaning there are millions of votes yet to be tallied and giving Steyer a possible path to second place.




https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/becerra-california-governors-race-22293553.php

[Lovie777]

1. Where are the gambling groups?......................

and what are the odds................

of Steyer?

[stopdiggin]

2. not a player (gambler), but I would be interested to see how 'close' the supposedly 'surprisingly accurate'

Last edited Sun Jun 7, 2026, 12:24 AM - Edit history (1)

betting sites were on this race. (probably going to require we wait for, more or less, final tallies though?)

second point - when touting 'accuracy' - are people talking based on total betting received on the race? Or betting taking place on a much narrower window? Say like the last 24-48 hours before polls closed?

(my own off the cuff. for Steyer? very, very minimal. he's toast.)

[pat_k]

5. See post #3 for Kalshi odds.

This analysis of trends in recent vote drops gives Steyer a shot:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/6/6/800051420/community/ca-gov-steyer-will-catch-hilton-per-todays-trends/

Even before seeing the article, I was thinking that Steyer overcoming the deficit would be within the realm of possibility based on what we see over, and over here in Seattle. We've had pretty amazing swings to a very progressive candidate as the late arriving vote is counted. The trend is young people and busy working people mail or drop in a dropbox at the last minute (I figure young people tend to procrastinate and busy working people are just juggling too many things and election day "sneaks up" and they realize they've got to get on the stick and get their ballot into a dropbox, and fast). Both groups tend to be FAR more progressive/liberal than the early vote, which skews older and richer.

[pat_k]

3. On Kalshi right now, a bet of 5.1 cents that Steyer will advance will get you a buck if he does advance.

And if he doesn't, you of course lose what you bet.

At those odds, I'd be inclined to take a flyer and bet ten bucks on the long shot. Unfortunately, it's kind of a pain to get verified and deposit money into Kalshi.

On edit:
Looks like I'm not the only one thinking this. The bet now requires 6.8 cents.

Another edit:
Wow, things move fast over there. The bet now requires 2.9 cents.

[yardwork]

4. Wow! Great news.

[Cha]

6. I would hope to high Heavens So!

So there's a chance!


TY, RandySF

[Emile]

7. I want the republican to end up in third place.

[RandySF]

8. I worry that a D on D race will cosume a lot of money and energy that could be directed elsewhere.

[Emile]

9. So are you wanting the republican to beat the democrat?

[RandySF]

10. No, because Xavier will win easily.

[Emile]

11. Then why are you afraid of Tom Steyer?

[Quiet Em]

12. Oh stop.

[Emile]

14. I want Tom Steyer to win second place

over a republican, and you want me to stop.

[Quiet Em]

15. I get that you want Steyer to win second place

Stop accusing people of wanting Republicans. That's what you need to stop.

[Emile]

17. Not accusing anything, just asking a question.

Oh, and I got my answer too.

[Quiet Em]

19. Ok

But I'm certain that Randy nor any other Democrat here on DU wants a Republican.

[Emile]

20. Uh huh, good to know.

[mvd]

16. Me too

We would be assured a Democrat wins. I would think the party would let it between the 2 Democrats and not devote resources..

[RandySF]

18. Party organization, no. Donors, yes.

[RandySF]

13. Money

Steyer will spend even more money on himself instead of helping other Democrats and Becerra will be forced to work even harder for donations that can go to other Dems.

[stopdiggin]

21. not at all what the poster said

and please stop the silly baiting

[Emile]

22. I posted I wanted a Democrat to win,

and you call that baiting.

[stopdiggin]

23. No. quoting exact words: "So are you wanting the republican to beat the democrat?"

absolutely baiting

[Emile]

24. That was a reply to someone after I posted I wanted

the democrat to win.

[Emile]

25. Looks like you got your wish.