MaddowBlog-Republicans' California election conspiracy theories suffer from one fatal flaw

[LetMyPeopleVote]

If nefarious Democratic schemers existed and were secretly orchestrating the results, these are not the outcomes they would have picked.

Aside from the obvious, Republican conspiracy theories about the California elections seem to suffer from one fatal flaw:

If nefarious Democratic schemers existed and were secretly orchestrating the results from the shadows, they wouldn’t have picked these outcomes.
www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-06-09T21:16:15.573Z

https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/republicans-california-election-conspiracy-theories-suffer-from-one-fatal-flaw

This week, the answer came into focus. MS NOW reported:

Los Angeles Council member Nithya Raman will advance to the November general election in the mayoral race to face the incumbent, Karen Bass, after overtaking ex-reality TV star Spencer Pratt in the primary, The Associated Press projects.

Raman has steadily trended upward in the vote count since Election Day, and she overtook Pratt on Sunday. Monday’s vote update gives Raman a cushion of more than 20,000 votes, making her position in the top two safe, with an estimated 93% of the vote counted.

.....In recent days, a great many GOP leaders, including Donald Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill, have invested an enormous amount of time and energy trying to convince the public the state’s elections process is “rigged” by nefarious Democratic schemers who’ve secretly orchestrated the results to ensure their preferred outcome.

When pressed for evidence, GOP officials tend to embarrass themselves, but that’s not the only — or even the central — problem. On the contrary, the Republican conspiracy theory suffers from an obvious fatal flaw: If nefarious Democratic schemers existed and were secretly orchestrating the results, they wouldn’t have picked these outcomes.

In Los Angeles’ mayoral race, it’s no secret that the Democratic incumbent, running in a city with an enormous progressive voter base, welcomed the opportunity to run against a conservative television personality with an embarrassingly thin professional resume. Instead, Bass will face Raman, a Harvard- and MIT-educated City Council member who’s already demonstrated an ability to win local elections.

If powerful Democratic operatives were pulling the strings from the shadows, they would’ve gladly pitted Bass against Pratt, if only to watch him lose in November.

Similarly, Democrats would’ve loved to see two Democratic candidates emerge from the state’s gubernatorial primary, thus ensuring party control. Instead, it appears increasingly likely that a GOP candidate backed by the Republican president will advance to the general election — which, again, is not the outcome these ostensible powerful Democratic operatives pulling the strings from the shadows would’ve deliberately orchestrated.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. MaddowBlog-Speaker Mike Johnson says his election conspiracy theories feel 'instinctively' true

What we’re dealing with is a political leader who believes gut feelings are a legitimate substitute for knowledge. They are not.

On issue after issue:
- national security
- 2020 election
- undocumented immigrants casting votes
- California primaries
Mike Johnson has said “instincts” and “intuition” are a legitimate substitute for knowledge.

They are not.
www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-06-09T13:16:45.705Z

https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/speaker-mike-johnson-says-election-conspiracy-theories-feel-instinctively-true

Donald Trump has earned a reputation as the nation’s most prominent and powerful election conspiracy theorist, but to the extent that there’s a competition for the silver medal in this ignominious category, House Speaker Mike Johnson is a clear contender.....

With this in mind, it wasn’t too surprising to see Congress’ top GOP lawmaker echo his party’s baseless conspiracy theories regarding California’s latest elections, though one word in his pitch was of particular interest.

RAJU: But what evidence is there to prove the California election is rigged?

MIKE JOHNSON: Look, some of these efforts are so diabolical and so far upstream it's impossible to prove. But I think everybody knows instinctively that something is wrong here.

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2026-06-08T19:56:22.798Z

.....It was an implicit acknowledgment of an inconvenient truth: Johnson and his cohorts simply don’t have any evidence. The speaker and other Republican leaders don’t know if their baseless ideas are true, but they apparently want the public to know that their conspiracy theories feel true.

It’s the basis for a debate, not about election administration processes, but about vibes.

But Johnson’s use of the word “instinctively” stood out, in part because it was so foolish, in part because of its familiarity.....

Similarly, after Trump’s 2020 defeat, Johnson also insisted that “a lot of us know intuitively” that there were problems with the vote tallies. After the Senate rejected the House’s impeachment effort against then-Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Johnson said “we know already intuitively” that Mayorkas deserved to be punished. When the House speaker unveiled legislation to ban noncitizens from voting — which is already illegal, and which effectively never happens — Johnson declared at a press conference, “We all know intuitively that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections.”

Among the obvious problems is the simple fact that instincts and intuition are utterly irrelevant when dealing with factual questions like these. Elections are either proper or they’re not. Voters are either casting legal ballots or they’re not. Evidence either exists or it doesn’t.

His track record suggests this basic dynamic is lost on the House speaker in fundamental ways.

What we’re dealing with, in other words, is a political leader who believes gut feelings are a legitimate substitute for knowledge. They are not.