Trump admin: Iran deal signing likely in coming days, but not '100%′ certain

[bucolic_frolic]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/iran-deal-trump-pakistan-sharif.html

The U.S. and Iran could sign a deal in the “next few days,” though the U.S. isn’t “100%” confident the agreement will be consummated, a senior Trump administration official said.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been helping negotiate a deal, earlier Friday said a “final, agreed upon text” of a deal between the U.S. and Iran “has been reached.”

President Donald Trump said the prior day that the U.S. had “just made a great settlement of the war with Iran,” subject to the “finalization of documents.”
~
But the official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity to discuss the latest developments in negotiations with Tehran, noted the U.S. is not “100%” confident the agreement they reached will be signed at all.

[efhmc]

1. What are the odds?

[pat_k]

2. Kalshi sez 20% before July

And that's putting the odds way too high. Odds have ticked up so the lies are prompting some movement (see graph on the live page)

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusairanagreement/us-iran-nuclear-deal/kxusairanagreement-27

[sakabatou]

3. "It'll be two weeks from now!"

Dump, at some point.

[moonscape]

4. How about .001% certain?

Na. I’d bet against those odds.

[Talitha]

5. Dump flip-flops because he's so damned stupid.

But he thinks he knows everything.
And he thinks he's a master negotiator.

Like I said - stupid.