Elon Musk's SpaceX crash just started

[Uncle Joe]

[ProfessorGAC]

1. It Did?

From it's peak yesterday to mid-afternoon it fell 10.32%, then flattened until close.
It went from 600% overvalued to 540% overvalued.
That's not a crash. It's still overvalued by a huge factor.

[Uncle Joe]

2. I agree,

but I think the keywords in the title are "just started."

[ProfessorGAC]

3. But, It Was Flat The Last 3 Hours

It dipped from the high & the stabilized.
Stabilizing is the opposite of a crash, so a crash didn't "start". Just a modest correction after some insane enthusiasm.

[Uncle Joe]

4. It went from 174 to 160 in one day

That's almost a ten percent drop in one day, and the average IPO appreciates 15-20 percent in one day.

I don't view -20-25+% underperformance in the first day of an IPO's offering as showing any sign of stabilization.

[SamuelTheThird]

5. Just wait till Musk puts a million data centers in orbit

Yes, that's what he said he would do.

[efhmc]

11. He also had a few future predictions about his car company if I remember correctly.

[onenote]

9. Another way of looking -- it went from 135 to 160

For most investors, where a stock starts and where it ends up are what they focus on, not changes in the course of a day.

[Uncle Joe]

10. Thanks for the correction, but I'm wondering

who actually owned it at 135?

It opened trading at 150

[ProfessorGAC]

12. We'll Agree To Disagree

This offering started out egregiously high so comparing it to "normal" is inappropriate.
The company loses money but the IPO started at 130?
Too abnormal to lump it in with other IPOs.

[WarGamer]

7. These clickbait videos are worse than AI spam.

[BannonsLiver]

13. AI or not

I know you’re a big fan of Musk and respect him and are in awe of the innovative things that he’s bought and claimed as his own, but always remember not everyone shares the same boundless adulation. Especially here. For the same reasons it’s a waste of time to get offended each time he is justifiably pilloried here.

[WarGamer]

15. I'm just fascinated by outliers...

Whether it's a fighter pilot shooting down 352 planes and not dying by being shot down or a non-combat incident... or a WW1 soldier who killed 25 German soldiers, silenced 35 machine guns and captured 100+ prisoners in a single battle... or Julius Caesar in Gaul?

Scipio defeating Hannibal?


Or Elon Musk... their "goodness" or "badness" is irrelevant.

There have been a lot of rich people fighting for wealth and none have accomplished what he has... the question is WHY?

That's the study of outliers.

[GenThePerservering]

19. He's good at buying up other people's ideas

and claiming them as his own.

[maxrandb]

8. Just wait until the next Dem President cancels all his effing government contracts

And that must...MUST...happen!

The first Dem who pulls that "what about the Space Ex employees" bullshit, ought to be expelled from Congress.

If they have a problem with that, I've got a few hundred thousand "former" GS employees that would "like a word"

I don't care how much "pain" it takes, this democracy can't survive with a handful of filthy rich fucksticks calling all the shots.

The shit this fascist regime has built, needs to be torn down to the fucking studs, with the same zeal and disregard for how much pain it causes, that the MAGAt dipshits have demonstrated while constructing it.

[Bluetus]

6. For those who are concerned about their 401Ks

Many people have part of their savings in the SPY ETF or mutual funds that include the insanely priced Mag 7 stocks. These companies have such high valuations that they distort the entire S&P 500 population. The Mag 7 stocks represent almost 40% of the S&P 500 capitalization now. The Mag-7 average a P/E of almost 30, whereas a PE of 15-17 is considered historically normal. Meta and Microsoft are close to the historical range, but Tesla is hanging out there at around 400 P/E. And there is an expectation that Tesla will soon be rolled up under SpaceX. SpaceX has a P/E of infinity. They are losing money bigly every quarter.

So what is an investor to do in this situation if one believes a) the Mag 7 companies are fundamentally overvalued, b) they are making a big mistake by dumping trillions into new AI data center capacity, and C) everything Musk does is ultimately a fraud of unprecedented proportions?

In an ideal world, there would be an ETF that includes the 500 companies, minus anything Musk has his fingers on. There is no such vehicle today, AFAIK. A sophisticated investor might buy the full index, but hedge against at least the Musk companies through options. Another strategy is a S&P 500 "equal weight" fund or ETF. In these funds, the Mag-7 have 4/500 weight instead of their almost 40% weight. These equal-weight funds have underperformed the S&P 500 in the past decade, but that's the point. The big "gains" have largely come from the crazy-valued mega-cap stocks. If one believes they are headed for an implosion, then an equal-weight fund might be a sensible alternative.

Any opinions about this?

[Polybius]

14. It's not going anywhere

Don't let politics play a role in finance. He'll hit $2 trillion easily one day. Maybe even $5 trillion when all is said and done.

[edhopper]

16. For that to happen

Tesla will have to grow bigger than Toyota,minstesd of shrinking as it is now.

[Polybius]

18. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if it did one day

[GenThePerservering]

20. Yep - Tesla isn't going anywhere

no innovation and the Cybertruck was a flop. Meanwhile BYD is stomping all over them.

Yeah - Tesla is doing GREAT, not.

[flvegan]

17. Oooooh, more clickbait. n/t