Trump's big bill will cut taxes by $3.7T and add $2.4T to deficit, budget office says

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: AP

Updated 10:32 AM EDT, June 4, 2025


WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s big bill making its way through Congress will cut taxes by $3.7 trillion but also increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO also estimates an increase of 10.9 million people without health insurance under the bill, including 1.4 million who are in the country without legal status in state-funded programs. The package would reduce federal outlays, or spending, by $1.3 trillion over that period, the budget office said.

The analysis comes at a crucial moment in the legislative process as Trump is pushing Congress to have the final product on his desk to sign into law by Fourth of July. The work of the CBO, which for decades has served as the official scorekeeper of legislation in Congress, will be weighed by lawmakers and others seeking to understand the budgetary impacts of the sprawling 1,000-page plus package.

Ahead of CBO’s release, the White House and Republican leaders criticized the budget office in a pre-emptive campaign designed to sow doubt in its findings.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/cbo-deficits-tax-cuts-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-64d7de49aef62ba07b7f6f45c1ca73d1

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. CBO says Trump's bill will add $2.4T to deficit, leave 11 million without health insurance

These are horrible numbers that would kill a bill in a normal congress. 11 million additional uninsured persons should be enough to scare the Senate

Link to tweet

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-projected-add-24-trillion/story?id=122488067&cid=social_twitter_abcnp

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" -- a massive tax and immigration bill to fund much of President Donald Trump's agenda -- will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO released new estimates on the legislation on Wednesday as focus turns to the Senate, where a handful of Republican members are expressing concerns about the deficit and changes to Medicaid.

The budget office is projecting 10.9 million more people will be uninsured in 2034 because of changes to health care.

The White House preemptively defended the bill just before the CBO release, with deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller accusing the nonpartisan office of being "lefty" and touting the legislation as a "dream bill."

[slightlv]

12. All 2.4 trillion will be tax cuts to the millionaires, billionaires, and trillionaires

This world didn't need millionaires. It certainly doesn't need billionaires, and in Musk, Thiel, and others we see trillionaires on the horizon. Resources are limited. By that time, there will be *nothing* left in the world for those who don't fit their square boxes.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

2. Maddow Blog-Budget office analysis makes the Republicans' domestic policy megabill look even worse

The original Congressional Budget Office score of the GOP's reconciliation package was brutal. A revised analysis made matters worse for Republicans.

MAGA is taking healthcare away from 11 million people.

Budget office analysis makes the Republicans’ domestic policy megabill look even worse www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo...

— The Wise Old Bat (@thewiseoldbat.bsky.social) 2025-06-04T15:23:52.018Z

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/cbo-office-budget-analysis-republicans-megabill-worse-rcna210890

Nearly two weeks later, the budget office has finally had an opportunity to carefully scrutinize the final version of the bill — which narrowly passed the lower chamber ahead of Memorial Day weekend — and as NBC News reported, the CBO’s revised findings don’t do Republicans any favors.

The sweeping Republican bill for President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda is projected to add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years, according to a new estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. It is slightly higher than an earlier version of the bill, which the CBO projected to add $2.3 trillion in new debt.

The same CBO report similarly found that 10.9 million Americans would lose their health care coverage if the Republican legislation became law — a slightly larger total than the analysts’ original estimate — as a result of Medicaid cuts and regressive changes to the Affordable Care Act.

What’s the good news for GOP officials in this revised score? There really isn’t any.

It’s worth emphasizing for context that Republicans didn’t actually want any of this information — before or after the vote. Common sense might suggest that GOP officials on Capitol Hill would want to know basic details about their giant reconciliation package, such as how much it would cost and the practical implications of its provisions, so that Congress would at least try to govern with open eyes.

But that hasn’t been the case. Just as Republicans scrambled in 2017 to pass massive tax breaks without waiting for a score from the Congressional Budget Office, GOP lawmakers decided to do the same thing in 2025, deliberately choosing willful ignorance about their own legislation.

Congressional Democrats, however, were free to ask the CBO to scrutinize the House Republicans’ proposal, and that’s precisely what happened.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. Raise taxes on poor and give to billionaires

Per Paul Krugman:

[benpollard]

4. In 10 years, our federal debt will be over $62T!!!

Current National Debt: As of May/June 2025, the U.S. national debt is approximately $36.2 trillion.

CBO Baseline Debt Increase (without new major legislation): The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in its January/March 2025 outlooks, projects that even under current law (meaning if no new major spending or tax legislation is passed, and assuming the 2017 tax cuts mostly expire as scheduled), the federal debt held by the public will increase significantly.

One CBO report states that debt held by the public is projected to rise from $29 trillion today (which is a slightly older figure, but directionally correct for their baseline start) to $52 trillion by 2035. This is an increase of approximately $23 trillion in the baseline.
Another report indicates an increase of roughly $22 trillion to $52.1 trillion by FY2035.
Additional Debt from "Trump's Bill" (e.g., extending TCJA): As we discussed, if a bill like the full extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions were passed, CBO projects it would add an additional $4.5 trillion to the deficit (and thus the debt) over 10 years, including interest costs.

Putting it Together:

If you take the current debt and add the projected baseline increase, plus the impact of a significant new bill like the TCJA extension:

Current Debt: ~$36.2 trillion
Baseline Increase (approx.): ~$22 - $23 trillion (reaching ~$52 trillion by 2035)
Additional Increase from Bill (e.g., TCJA extension): ~$4.5 trillion
This would lead to a total projected national debt of:
36.2 Trillion (current)+approximately $22 Trillion (baseline increase)+$4.5 Trillion (bill’s impact)=approximately $62.7 Trillion

Holy crap! We won't be able to pay interest on such a huge debt!

[thought crime]

10. And yet, Republicans who warn of a "Debt Trap" refuse to even think about raising taxes.

Most Democratic leaders consider both decreased spending (including decreased defense spending) and increased taxes (on the wealthy, and on the upper middle class). Sadly, this can be a losing position with voters conditioned by the republicans.

[benpollard]

15. The BBB bill does raise taxes on clean energy sources

[thought crime]

13. My silly solution to unmanageable federal debt

(thinking out-of-the-box)

When we can't afford to pay service on the debt, we can start selling states, especially to countries that hold a lot of US debt.

My suggestions:

Sell Alaska to China. They need land and they have icebreakers.
Sell Washington State to Korea. I happen to know they like Washington State; the kids who play vicious ping-pong at our community center are all Korean kids.
Sell Oregon and Hawaii to Japan. Let me know soon so we can move to Oregon or Hawaii before this happens.

I think this could raise 5-10 Trillion easy (paid over time to service the debt), and we haven't even started talking about Texas and Florida.

or at least, fantasy.

[moniss]

5. It has always been problematic that people in politics and media

don't just simply say "The proposal cuts revenue to pay the bills at a time when increased revenue is needed." Simply put it's like being a family with increasing monthly financial obligations but the wage earners go to their bosses and ask for a cut in pay. Yes I know they act deceptively but for those who actually are trying to state the facts the simple approach would get it done.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. "'The proposal cuts revenue to pay the bills at a time when increased revenue is needed.'"

Agree 100%.

They REFUSE to say that they are CUTTING REVENUE (incoming money) and reframe "revenue" as "bad" and then cherry-picking what they WILL be "spending" (and it's not for people or the good of the nation).

They should say that "taxpayers are BUYING GOODS AND SERVICES" from the government.

You want a Ranger at a park? You pay for that. You want your child's doll or pajamas tested for flammability? You pay for that. You want your weather forecasts 24/7 and as accurate as they can be with the proper equipment? You pay for that. You want to know if your bank is following the rules? You pay for that. You want to live and work in a safe environment? You pay for that.

[moniss]

11. Excellent phrasing. nt

[thought crime]

9. Supply side nonsense

They justify tax cuts for the "investor class" with the false claim that the cuts will boost the economy and generate more tax revenue. It never works that way except in the decaying minds of Lawrence Kudlow and Stephen Moore, the Bagdad Bob's of economics.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. Even one of the big pushers of that

under Raygun - David Stockman - finally accept that it doesn't work.

[Diamond_Dog]

7. I'm surprised Trump hasn't fired the head of the CBO and installed a lackey willing to fudge numbers.

[thought crime]

8. He'll do it if he can.

The mere existence of a source of truth is a huge threat to Trump.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. The CBO is completely under the Legislative Branch, where the head is appointed by the SOH and Senate Pro Tem

https://www.cbo.gov/about/history

History

Beginning in the early 1920s, the President began to assume more prominence in setting the federal budget. The Budget and Accounting Act of 1921 gave the President overall responsibility for budget planning by requiring him to submit an annual, comprehensive budget proposal to the Congress; that act also expanded the President’s control over budgetary information by establishing the Bureau of the Budget (renamed the Office of Management and Budget in 1971). By contrast, the Congress lacked institutional capacity to establish and enforce budgetary priorities, coordinate actions on spending and revenue legislation, or develop budgetary and economic information independently of the executive branch.

Conflict between the legislative and executive branches reached a high point during the summer of 1974, when Members of Congress objected to President Richard Nixon’s threats to withhold Congressional appropriations for programs that were inconsistent with his policies (a process known as impoundment). The dispute led to the enactment of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 in July of that year.

That act reasserted the Congress’s constitutional control over the budget by establishing new procedures for controlling impoundments and by instituting a formal process through which the Congress could develop, coordinate, and enforce its own budgetary priorities independently of the President. In addition, the law created new legislative institutions to implement the new Congressional budget process: the House and Senate Budget Committees to oversee execution of the budget process and the Congressional Budget Office to provide the Budget Committees and the Congress with objective, impartial information about budgetary and economic issues. The agency began operating on February 24, 1975, when Alice Rivlin was appointed its first Director.

(snip)

H.R.7130 - Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974

[PSPS]

16. So, omit the $3.7T gift to billionaires and you'll have a budget surplus!