Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP up just 1.4%, badly missing estimate; inflation firms at 3%

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Fri Feb 20, 2026, 09:44 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CBS News

Published Fri, Feb 20 2026 8:31 AM EST Updated 15 Min Ago


U.S. growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 as the government shutdown impacted spending and investment, while a key inflation metric showed high prices are still a factor for the economy, according to data released Friday. Gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to the Commerce Department, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 2.5% gain.

Consumer spending rose at a slower pace for the period while government spending tumbled sharply in a quarter marked by the record-length shutdown. The department estimated that the shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from growth, though it added that the exact impacts “cannot be quantified.”

For the full year in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% pace, down from the 2.8% increase in 2024.

“The Federal government shutdown clearly sent the economy careening off its strong growth path in the fourth quarter which is a one-off that won’t be repeated in early 2026,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds. Just prior to the data release, President Donald Trump warned that the GDP number would be soft, blaming it on the government shutdown that ended in November.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/pce-inflation-december-2025.html

---

From the source -

Link to tweet

BEA News
@BEA_News
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q4.

https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross
-domestic-product


#GDP
8:30 AM · Feb 20, 2026

Link to tweet

BEA News
@BEA_News
For all of 2025, the U.S. economy grew 2.2%.

https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross
-domestic-product


#GDP
8:31 AM · Feb 20, 2026

Article updated.

Previous article/headline -

Published Fri, Feb 20 2026 8:31 AM EST Updated Moments Ago


Economic growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 while inflation held firm, according to data released Friday that could complicate the Federal Reserve's path on interest rates. Gross domestic produce rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to Commerce Department numbers released Friday, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 2.5% gain.

For the full year in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% pace, down from the 2.8% increase in 2024. At the same time, inflation held firm in December, according to the gauge most closely watched by Fed officials.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3% in December, according to a separate release. That matched the consensus forecast but kept the pivotal inflation measure well above the Fed's 2% target. On a headline basis, the PCE index accelerated 2.9%, or 0.1 percentage point higher than expected. Both indexes rose 0.4% for the month, compared to the respective forecasts for 0.3%.

Just prior to the data release, President Donald Trump warned that the GDP number would be soft, blaming it on the government shutdown that ended in November.

Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP up just 1.4%, badly missing estimate

Published Fri, Feb 20 2026 8:31 AM EST Updated Moments Ago


Economic growth cooled near the end of 2025 while inflation held firm, according to data released Friday that could complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Gross domestic produce rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to Commerce Department numbers adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 2.5% gain.

At the same time, inflation held firm in December, according to the gauge most closely watched by Fed officials.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3% in December, according to a separate release. That matched the consensus forecast but kept the pivotal inflation measure well above the Fed's 2% target.

On a headline basis, the PCE index accelerated 2.9%, or 0.1 percentage point higher than expected. Both indexes rose 0.4% for the month, compared to the respective forecasts for 0.3%.


This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Original article -

Published Fri, Feb 20 2026 8:31 AM EST


The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to increase 3% from a year ago in December, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Gross domestic product was projected to rise at a 2.5% annualized pace in the fourth quarter.

[BootinUp]

1. We are in an era of broken measurement

First COVID broke it, then Trump. It's broken.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. This might trigger some market reaction

between this and the Iran threats that have sent WTI oil prices up above the mid-$60/bbl (and Brent above $70/bbl).

[lostincalifornia]

3. Bloomberg TV just pointed out that before this data was released, trump was posting on his truth social that

said the GDP will be much lower because of the Democrats and the shut down, asking the question, did the trump see the data before it was released, and release information before it was official, which is completely against protocol.

From the Bloomberg TV news scroll:

"Trump bemoans shutdown impact on GDP before fourth quarter read.
President Donald Trump said that last year's government shutdown cost the US at least two points in GDP, in a social media post less than an hour before the government was expected to release the first estimat of the fourth-quarter change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product."

Bloomberg also pointed out that there was no way the government shutdown lost 2% GDP because of that shut down.

This nazi POS in the white house needs to be held accountable for what he is doing, and the only way that has a chance to happen is if the Democrats take back the House, and I don't want to hear any third party bullshit how there is no difference between the republicans and the Democrats.

It won't be easy either, because the I think it is quite likely that president chaos is going to militarily attack Iran, and if that happens everything will be uncertain.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. One of the breaking banners that I got

said something about blaming it on the "government shutdown" (it may have been a NYT breaking). All I could do was scream about how ANY of that has to do with the "government shutdown". He doesn't know or care WHAT the GDP is measuring (the largest % is "consumer spending" ) but if it's "bad", it's not his fault.

And yes he is apparently handed a copy beforehand, and like he did before, he lets the cat out of the bag BEFORE the official release (the BLS and BEA releases are embargoed until their set times - usually 8:30 am ET).

[lostincalifornia]

7. Without a doubt, he was given that information before the offical release, and that is exactly what they were saying on

Bloomberg TV.

[Wiz Imp]

16. This weak report was entirely predictable for most people.

But not for Trump. He's not smart enough to understand anything about the economy so I'm sure he expected 10% growth, just because. The fact that he was making excuses for a weak report even before it was released makes it clear he saw the report early. This is more than just breaking with traditiinal protocol, this can have significant impacts on global financial markets. It might not be technically illegal but it should be.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. Plus, IIRC

anything going anywhere near a 10% or more range means "overheated economy", which is actually bad news.

China went through that a couple times since the mid-2000s.

[Esox Lucius]

4. Same number as Trumps approval rating

[samsingh]

5. this might still be inflated

the trump economy

[SamuelTheThird]

8. And these are massaged numbers

Economy is going to go down the toilet

[OGBuzz]

9. Have no fear, it's temporary...

Trump has $20 trillion in foreign investments coming......should be any day now. The Golden Age is just around the corner.

[chouchou]

10. Are we Great yet ?

[JT45242]

11. Still think it is BS that two major components of household living expenses (food and energy) are not included

I can completely avoid the inflation on new cars by continuing to drive old ones (last 3 cars we bought were all kept for at least 16 years and over 175K miles).
I can avoid a lot of luxuries -- vacation costs, eating out, travel, new clothes

But I CANNOT AVOID buying groceries, lighting, heating, and cooling my house. I cannot avoid (where I live wuth limited public transportation) buying gasoline even with a hybrid car.

My food bill is substantially up through both straight inflation and shrinkflation. My electric bill is substantially higher.

The real inflation to people is much, much higher when you consider the things that you cannot do without.

[progree]

20. What the OP article calls "headline inflation" includes food and energy

I'm distraught that the CBS report leads off with core inflation (which doesn't include food and energy).

Looking at the BEA report:

https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/pi1225.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2025

"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for December increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for December increased 2.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago.

They lead off with the full PCE (including food and energy), as they always do.

Likewise for the CPI, produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Back to the PCE:
Table 2.8.7. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Prices for PCE by Major Type of Product

Table 2.8.11. Real PCE by Major Type of Product: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago

[Cheezoholic]

12. Anything coming from this administration, double it......

Shopping yesterday, 9 bucks for deodorant, fuck it I'll go natural. Been looking for a new riding mower. The cheapest one at a big box store was 500 more than it was last Spring, exact same model. I pretty much buy the same things every month for groceries as I'm on a fixed income. Its gone up 50 a month over the last year. Electric gone up 15%.

Yeah he's beat affordability as he said in a rant yesterday in GA. To the tune of 4.5 billion in his familys stupid crypto scam.
Fuck these repuke thieves. Fuck them all.


FF!!!

[CanonRay]

13. From the US Department of Made Up Numbers

DeMUN

[modrepub]

14. Trump Promised 4-5% GDP Growth

We’re getting nowhere near that. The M$M needs to confront this administration about how poorly they’ve managed this economy. And if the M$M won’t then we need to start flooding these reporters email boxes and social media sites asking them why they won’t hold these people accountable.

Guess what folks? It’s time we the people start bugging the crap out of the institutions that are supposed to be holding society together.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. The media spent 4 years crucifying Biden for better numbers than this.

Biden had 2.5% growth in 2024, so Trump inherited a decent GDP growth number, made it worse.

[mdbl]

17. Probably wasn't even that much

That's just all they could fudge the numbers without just forgetting it all together.

[Grins]

19. "...U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q4." Remember...

We're talking about the government's fiscal quarters which are different from most corporations (and your) fiscal quarters/year.

Q4 is the period 01 July to 30 Sept.
So this data is more than 4-months old.

Q1 (Oct, Nov, Dec) should be "interesting" in the Chinese sense of the word.

[progree]

21. "Q4 is the period 01 July to 30 Sept." - link please.

Last edited Fri Feb 20, 2026, 11:42 AM - Edit history (1)

Here's my link:
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December),

ETA- I think Q4 being July 1 thru September 30 is the case for U.S. govt budget and fiscal stuff ...

https://www.google.com/search?q=for+what+does+the+u.s.+government+use+a+fiscal+year+ending+September+30%3F&oq=for+what+does+the+u.s.+government+use+a+fiscal+year+ending+September+30%3F&gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgYIABBFGDkyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQ6wcYQNIBCTI4MjQ3ajBqMagCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

The U.S. government uses a fiscal year (FY) ending September 30 (running Oct. 1 to Sept. 30) as its annual accounting period for budgeting, financial reporting, and revenue collection.

(yeah, that's the AI answer, one can check the links after the AI stuff)

[AverageOldGuy]

22. EASY SOLUTION:

Abolish the Dept of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics or whoever it is who is trying to sabotage The Greatest Economy Ever.

See, that was easy.

[progree]

24. Today's GDP and PCE Inflation reports are both from the Commerce Dept's BEA

Bureau of Economic Analysis.

While CPI inflation and the famous jobs report (payroll jobs, unemployment rate) comes from the BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics (Labor Dept)

And the weekly unemployment insurance claims reports are from the Labor Department's .
Employment and Training Administration

[progree]

23. GRAPHS of PCE and CORE PCE inflation, the trend is not your friend edition

Core PCE (below) is the PCE with food and energy removed. It's the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge for predicting FUTURE inflation



PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI

CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

[OldBaldy1701E]

25. Well, since we are programmed to believe that this is the only thing that matters in the world...

I guess we need to be worried.

[Lovie777]

26. I've noticed going to markets..................

many products are missing besides the sky high prices.

[NoMoreRepugs]

27. 2.8% to 2.2% is more than a 20% decline - way to go VonSchitzInPants.

[Hassler]

28. If they are releasing 1.4%, then it is

Much, much worse. Probably in negative growth.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

29. MaddowBlog-New GDP data falls far short, shows 2025 ended with weak economic growth

In the first year of Trump’s second term, economic growth fell to a nine-year low, and domestic job growth fell to a 16-year low. It’s worth asking why.

As Trump rambles on about how “dead” the economy was, remember:

2024, under Biden: 1.45 million jobs
2025, under Trump: 181,000 jobs

2024, under Biden: 2.8% GDP growth
2025, under Trump: 2.2% GDP growth

The question for the White House is simple: Why did things get worse after Trump returned?

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-02-20T21:56:47.789Z

https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/new-gdp-data-falls-short-trump

Earlier this week, Peter Navarro, a leading White House voice on trade and economic policy, appeared on Fox News and insisted that the U.S. economy is “perfect.” In fact, during the same on-air comments, Navarro described the economic conditions in the first year of Donald Trump’s second term as the best since 1998, dovetailing with the president’s near-constant insistence that the domestic economy has literally never been as healthy as it is now......

But as the week comes to an end, the latest economic news adds insult to injury. CNBC reported:

Economic growth slowed more than expected near the end of 2025 while inflation held firm, according to data released Friday that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rates.

Gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to Commerce Department numbers released Friday, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a 2.5% gain.

What’s more, we now know that the economy grew at a 2.2% pace across all of 2025 — down from 2.8% in 2024. Excluding the pandemic, 2025 showed the weakest economic growth in the United States in nine years.

In other words, despite endless Republican hype, economic growth and job growth were stronger during Joe Biden’s final year in office compared with the first year of Trump’s second term.

The White House has not yet offered a persuasive explanation as to why the economy got worse after the Republican returned to the Oval Office......

If recent history is any guide, the administration will try to move the goalposts again, but the underlying question for the White House remains the same: As a candidate, Trump promised to deliver immediate, Day 1 results. Why did he fail?

[Aussie105]

30. "Trump promised to deliver immediate, Day 1 results. Why did he fail?"

Answer: Because he is nuts, and has surrounded himself with incompetent people.

But I'm calling it early and first:

Job losses, rising prices - the CPI outstrips the GDP by a fair margin, and the real GDP numbers are negative if you factor in inflation.

And two consecutive quarters of negative numbers is a recession, longer term it is a depression.

[progree]

31. The GDP numbers are deflated by the "GDP Deflator". I don't know the difference between

that and inflation numbers like the CPI and the PCE (today's/this thread's other report)

ETA - there was a sub-thread on this somewhere, the deflator is for domestic production only since GDP is for domestic production only /ETA

The "real" in real GDP and other government reports is their terminology for inflation-adjusted

Google: "what does the "real" in real GDP mean?"

Anyway, the nominal dollar increase in Q4 was an annualized 5.1%
https://bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025

Real GDP and Related Measures
[Percent change (SAAR) from 2025 Q3 to Q4]

Real GDP 1.4
Current-dollar GDP 5.1
Gross domestic purchases price index 3.7

SAAR means seasonally-adjusted annual rate

https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
which points to:
https://bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025