Exclusive: Supreme Court tariff ruling makes over $175 billion in US revenue subject to refunds, Penn-Wharton estimates
Source: Reuters
February 20, 2026 6:02 AM EST Updated 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - More than $175 billion in U.S. tariff collections are subject to potential refunds after the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down President Donald Trump's broad emergency tariffs, Penn-Wharton Budget Model economists said.
Their estimate, produced at Reuters' request, was derived from a ground-up forecasting model that uses tariff rates by product and country for specific duties imposed by Trump, including those under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), said Lysle Boller, senior economist for Penn-Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), a non-partisan fiscal research group at the University of Pennsylvania. The Supreme Court handed Trump a stinging 6-3 defeat by ruling he overstepped his authority by using IEEPA, a sanctions law, to impose tariffs on imported goods.
The justices sent the case back to the Court of International Trade to sort out next steps, a process expected to set off a scramble by companies to demand refunds. "The Supreme Court did not talk explicitly about the $175 billion in tariffs that could potentially be refunded. On the other hand, their ruling today clearly does open that door for those refunds to be demanded," PWBM director Kent Smetters told Reuters. Most companies will likely seek refunds, "and it's basically just going to come out from the U.S. Treasury," he added.
Trump has touted the revenue generated by all of his tariffs, which were estimated by the Congressional Budget Office at about $300 billion annually over the next decade. Refunds of $175 billion would exceed the combined fiscal 2025 spending by the Department of Transportation and the Department of Justice.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-tariff-revenue-risk-supreme-court-ruling-tops-175-billion-penn-wharton-2026-02-20/
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I hope Reuters stays on top of this story ...
