Polymarket Iran Bets Hit $529 Million as New Wallets Draw Notice

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Reposted by Mike Masnick
https://bsky.app/profile/masnick.com

dell cameron
‪@dell.bsky.social‬

if people are using classified information to place bets, then theoretically others can analyze betting behavior to find signals that reveal classified information.

‪Max Kennerly‬
‪@maxkennerly.bsky.social‬
· 5h
If America still had the rule of law, this would be the easiest prosecution ever, but we all know absolutely nothing will happen.

Six accounts on Polymarket made around $1 million in profit by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. The accounts were all freshly created in February and had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur. Some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
ALT
10:28 PM · Feb 28, 2026

if people are using classified information to place bets, then theoretically others can analyze betting behavior to find signals that reveal classified information.

— dell cameron (@dell.bsky.social) 2026-03-01T03:28:31.664Z

Max Kennerly
‪@maxkennerly.bsky.social‬

If America still had the rule of law, this would be the easiest prosecution ever, but we all know absolutely nothing will happen.

Six accounts on Polymarket made around $1 million in profit by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. The accounts were all freshly created in February and had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur. Some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
ALT

‪Bloomberg News‬
‪@bloomberg.com‬
· 6h
As US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran this weekend, bettors on Polymarket — where $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes — were cashing in

Polymarket Iran Bets Hit $529 Million as New Wallets Draw Notice
As US and Israeli bombs fell on Iran this weekend, bettors on Polymarket — where $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes — were cashing in. Almost immediately, blockchain sleuths began hunting for unusual patterns in recent bets.
bloom.bg
8:15 PM · Feb 28, 2026

If America still had the rule of law, this would be the easiest prosecution ever, but we all know absolutely nothing will happen.

— Max Kennerly (@maxkennerly.bsky.social) 2026-03-01T01:15:18.458Z

[somsai]

1. I guess if you were watching Polymarket closely you could have bought oil on the Commodities exchange

I think China buys most of Iran's oil. Plus Iran said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz. On the downside this means more money for Putin to bomb Ukraine.