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S&P 500 closed Tuesday 1/13 at 6964, down 0.2% # CPI - a little less than expected but... # Powell # 25% tariff & Iran
This discussion thread is pinned.
Last edited Wed Jan 14, 2026, 03:47 AM - Edit history (236)
More on the headline: Core CPI was a little less than expected, but the latest month over month for both the headline (all items) CPI and core CPI are well above 2%, as is the year-over-year of both measures
"Powell" refers to the Trump v. Fed Chairman Powell battle that heated up big time Monday
"25% tariff & Iran" - Trump said late Monday that countries that continue to do business with Iran will face a 25% US tariff
In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.
10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.17% on 1/13 - down 0.02. It was 4.19% on Friday 12/12 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/
Bitcoin: $95,120 @ 853p ET 1/13/26 exceeding at last it's end of year 2024 closing level, and above it's level of recent days. It was $87,453 Friday 12/26, It's still in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (actually down 25% from that level) (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Next Fed rate decision: January 28
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves)
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/
How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com
If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com
Stock Market Today - first briefly Monday's highlights, and then Tuesday's
Monday January 12 --
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 eke out records, gold soars after Trump amps up fight with Fed, Powell, Yahoo Finance, 1/12/25
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-eke-out-records-gold-soars-after-trump-amps-up-fight-with-fed-powell-210028506.html
# Both Dow and SP500 at new records. NASDAQ: +0.3%
# Federal Reserve is subpoenaed, supposedly for lying to Congress about the Federal Reserve building renovations, but Powell forcefully responds that the real reason is because of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting decisions are not what Trump wants
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/doj-subpoenas-federal-reserve-building-renovations-jerome-powell/
Tuesday January 13 --
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide as inflation eases, JPMorgan sinks with more bank earnings ahead, Yahoo Finance, 1/13/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slide-as-inflation-eases-jpmorgan-sinks-with-more-bank-earnings-ahead-210023619.html
US stocks fell on Tuesday as a milder inflation reading supported bets on medium-term Fed easing, while JPMorgan (JPM) results kicked off the fourth quarter earnings season with underwhelming results.
The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.8%, leading the way lower, while the S&P 500 lost about 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped roughly 0.1%.
JPMorgan Chase led out this week's rush of big bank results, posting a quarterly earnings miss amid a $2.2 billion hit to net income from a Apple Card deal. Shares in America's biggest bank were down over 4%. With earnings season now unofficially underway, Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) will follow with their own results in coming days.
Meanwhile, Tuesday morning's CPI report, a key factor in the Fed’s rate-setting decisions, showed that inflation remained steady last month. The annual headline rate came in at 2.7%, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, both in line with forecasts. "Core" consumer prices came in below forecasts at 0.2% over last month and 2.6% over last year, marking the lowest annual rise since early 2021. ((see Calendar below for more on that and the LBN thread link -progree))
The data takes on added importance after the December jobs report pointed to a cooling labor market. Traders have firmed up bets on the Fed holding steady this month, but odds have slightly shifted for a cut in the months after, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders still expect the first of two quarter-point cuts in June.
Meanwhile, global central bankers (link) have joined the likes of Janet Yellen and Alan Greenspan in rushing to condemn (link) the Justice Department's investigation of Chair Jerome Powell, seen as a threat (link) to the Fed's autonomy. Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May, characterized the probe as political pressure from President Trump (link), who has repeatedly called for aggressive interest-rate cuts. ((see the article for the links -progree))
Trump visited a Ford (F) plant in Detroit on Tuesday to promote US manufacturing and his economic policies. Michigan is seen as a key battleground state, and an important gauge of voter sentiment.
On the geopolitical front, Trump said late Monday that countries that continue to do business with Iran will face a 25% US tariff (link). The vow adds another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to a market already grappling with moves on Venezuela (link) and Greenland (link), and could threaten the US trade truce (link) with China.((4 links in this paragraph -progree))
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slide-as-inflation-eases-jpmorgan-sinks-with-more-bank-earnings-ahead-210023619.html
US stocks fell on Tuesday as a milder inflation reading supported bets on medium-term Fed easing, while JPMorgan (JPM) results kicked off the fourth quarter earnings season with underwhelming results.
The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.8%, leading the way lower, while the S&P 500 lost about 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped roughly 0.1%.
JPMorgan Chase led out this week's rush of big bank results, posting a quarterly earnings miss amid a $2.2 billion hit to net income from a Apple Card deal. Shares in America's biggest bank were down over 4%. With earnings season now unofficially underway, Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) will follow with their own results in coming days.
Meanwhile, Tuesday morning's CPI report, a key factor in the Fed’s rate-setting decisions, showed that inflation remained steady last month. The annual headline rate came in at 2.7%, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, both in line with forecasts. "Core" consumer prices came in below forecasts at 0.2% over last month and 2.6% over last year, marking the lowest annual rise since early 2021. ((see Calendar below for more on that and the LBN thread link -progree))
The data takes on added importance after the December jobs report pointed to a cooling labor market. Traders have firmed up bets on the Fed holding steady this month, but odds have slightly shifted for a cut in the months after, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders still expect the first of two quarter-point cuts in June.
Meanwhile, global central bankers (link) have joined the likes of Janet Yellen and Alan Greenspan in rushing to condemn (link) the Justice Department's investigation of Chair Jerome Powell, seen as a threat (link) to the Fed's autonomy. Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May, characterized the probe as political pressure from President Trump (link), who has repeatedly called for aggressive interest-rate cuts. ((see the article for the links -progree))
Trump visited a Ford (F) plant in Detroit on Tuesday to promote US manufacturing and his economic policies. Michigan is seen as a key battleground state, and an important gauge of voter sentiment.
On the geopolitical front, Trump said late Monday that countries that continue to do business with Iran will face a 25% US tariff (link). The vow adds another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to a market already grappling with moves on Venezuela (link) and Greenland (link), and could threaten the US trade truce (link) with China.((4 links in this paragraph -progree))
------ SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE ------
There are a lot more articles on the page than I've shown, I only picked ones I find interesting
# Microsoft says it won't drive up electricity costs near its data centers
# Trump says Powell is either 'incompetent' or 'crooked' as DOJ pursues criminal investigation into Fed chair
# US new homes sales remain largely unchanged in October
# Oil crosses $65 for first time since November as geopolitical risks mount
# Inflation eases in December as core consumer prices rise less than forecast in final month of 2025
# (Two more articles on Trump vs. Powell)
Scroll down to see earlier in the day reports
And scroll down to the bottom of this post to look at the amazing Oil price graph
See Reply #1 to this thread for reports prior to December 23
================================
CALENDAR
Recent and Coming Up, Reports (I'm also keeping the December 23 - January 9 ones for now, will put the older ones in reply #1 by Friday's post hopefully so they aren't in the way
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for
TUESDAY DECEMBER 23
* GDP Q3 first estimate (delayed report, normally released late September). (govt) -- it came in at a 4.3% annualized rate, well above the 3.3% rate economists were expecting. Various factors cited in media: an acceleration of EV purchases prior to the Sept 30 expiration of tax credits. A lot of spending by big tech companies on AI (investment spending boosts the GDP number). A substantial rise in exports (up 8.8% annualized rate) and a small drop in imports -- both these boost the GDP number, Federal spending also played a sizable role, a reflection of the large uptick in defense spending as well as buyouts for federal workers. Also, it reflects the "K-shaped" economy -- higher-income people flush with growing stock market wealth increased their spending, while lesser-income people struggled with higher prices and a weakening job market.
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587157 ## From the source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits
* Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, non-govt) - result: the 5th straight month of decline. The worst since April, and at about the same level as seen in the 2020 pandemic year. Except there is no microbe-driven pandemic, it's all Trumpdemic now. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation tumbled 9.5 points to 116.8.
LBN thread (see graph in reply #2) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587258
* Durable goods orders - I haven't looked at yet
* Industrial production and capacity utilization - I haven't looked at yet
WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 24
* Weekly unemployment insurance claims - 224,000 was reported December 18. 214,000 was reported today, December 24, a drop of 10,000 . But continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.92 million (govt)
NO REPORTS DECEMBER 25 NOR DECEMBER 26
MONDAY DECEMBER 29
* Pending home sales - I saw a headline: up 3.35% from November and up 2.6% year-over-year (non-govt, National Association of Realtors)
TUESDAY DECEMBER 30
* Case-Shiller home prices index - I saw a headline: home prices up for a 3rd straight month, and up 1.4% since October 2024
WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31
* Weekly unemployment insurance claims, 199,000. It was 214,000 in last week's report
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20251646.pdf
FRIDAY, JANUARY 2
* S&P Manufacturing - I haven't seen the report
MONDAY, JANUARY 5
* ISM Manufacturing -- US Factory Malaise Continues as Gauge Drops to One-Year Low, Bloomberg 1/5/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-malaise-continues-gauge-152835595.html
head count shrinks for 11th straight month. (weren't tariffs supposed to fix that?)
TUESDAY, JANUARY 6
* S&P Services PMI -- shows sector grew at slowest pace in 8 months in December
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-49000-sp-500-jumps-to-new-high-in-record-setting-start-to-year-194907643.html
(and scroll down that page)
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7
# ADP private payroll employment, +41,000 PRIVATE payroll jobs (by the way, in comparison the BLS jobs report that came out Friday 1/9, with the headline +50,000 jobs number, had a private payroll jobs increase of +37,000, a very unusally close match to the ADP number). (ADP has payroll data for about 20% of the private work force, and somehow they estimate the other 80%)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143594195
https://adpemploymentreport.com/
# ISM Services,
# JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, - kinda bad report. lowest job openings in over a year for one thing. The number of job openings fell in November, while the hiring rate was a paltry 3.2%. There were 1.1 unemployed people for every available job, the highest level since early 2021. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoff-plans-for-december-hit-lowest-monthly-level-since-2024-in-positive-sign-challenger-says-131808125.html (the article is almost all about the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report, but the above blurb is in reference to the JOLTS report)
THURSDAY JANUARY 8
# Unemployment insurance claims: 208,000, an 8,000 increase over last week
# Q3 Productivity - I haven't looked at it, but from a headline I saw, it's a big jump thanks to the 4.3% Q3 GDP (annualized rate) reported in December,
FRIDAY, JANUARY 9
# Big BLS jobs report : +50,000 non-farm payroll jobs, unemployment rate ticked down from 4.5% to 4.4%. A LOT more to this story, for example, thanks to downward revisions of October and November, there are actually 26k fewer non-farm payroll jobs than were reported in the previous (December 16) report. AND , didya know, in December actual (meaning not-seasonally adjusted) jobs fell by 192,000, but seasonal adjustment turned that to a positive 50,000? Could YOU use a seasonal adjustment like that? AND, President literal asswipe posted several jobs numbers 12 hours before the 8:30 AM ET release time (did you know that they show the president and the entire Council of Economic Advisers the jobs report the evening before it is released?). AND there is probably a couple other things to say, I'll have to review the thread...
the LBN thread link, full of information, is https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143595598
# Consumer Sentiment - a slight improvement but graph still looks awful
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
Monday Jan 12
# Nothing
Tuesday Jan 13
# CPI Consumer Price Index - The headline (all items) number was as expected: December (over November): +0.3%, Year-over-year: +2.7%
The Core measure (which excludes food and energy) was a 0.1 percentage points below expectations: December (over November): +0.2%, Year-over-year: 2.6%. Note that the one-month numbers when annualized (3.6% and 2.4%) are over the Fed's 2.0% target, as are both year-over-year numbers.
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143597741
# New home sales
# Budget deficit
# NFIB optimism index
Wednesday Jan 14
# Retail sales for November (delayed report)
# PPI (Producer Price Index) for November (delayed report)
# Existing home sales (delayed report)
Thursday Jan 15
# Unemployment insurance claims
# Import prices
# Empire state and Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing surveys
Friday Jan 16
# Industrial production and capacity utilization
Friday Jan 23 - way out in the future
# PCE inflation - the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. So the Fed will have this report before their January 28 rate decision, assuming no government shutdowns
Calendar as a ribbon, January 12-Jan 16: #MON(12)-nada #TUE(13): CPI, New home sales, budget deficit, NFIB optimism index #WED(14) Retail sales for November, PPI for November, Existing home sales, #THU(15) UIC, Import prices, Empire state and Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing surveys, ##FRI(16) Industrial production and capacity utilization ###FRI(23) PCE inflation ### Next FOMC rate setting meeting: 1/28 ## https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm
BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday January 13 at 6964, down 0.2% for the day,
and up 20.4% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 16.1% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 18.4% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 1.7% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)
S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00
# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/
========================================================
I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).
The Dow closed Monday at 49,590, and it closed Tuesday at 49,192, a drop of 0.8% (398 points) for the day
https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/
DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)
I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:
Crude Oil
US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)
If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
🚨 ❤️ 😬! 😱 < - - emoticon library for future uses
19 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
I look at it often. 
If I had a nickel for every time I’d said that. 
I am far from liking anything about crypto. I try to avoid things that are easy to buy and difficult to sell. I do monitor it, tho. Due to its position in the techbro’s DOW -> AI -> Crypto financial ouroboros.