Something big is about to happen in Chechnya - RFU News

[TexasTowelie]

Today, there is interesting news from the Russian Federation.

Here, immediately after the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov was hospitalized, one of his sons and a successor to his power joined him in a harsh condition. With his other son left fearing for his life, many now flee Chechnya, thinking that not only the ruling family is in the crosshairs.

The situation in Chechnya worsens, as Ramzan Kadyrov remains in critical condition, widely believed to be dying after severe kidney failure, with persistent rumors pointing to possible poisoning. For years, Kadyrov has attempted to transform Chechnya’s leadership into a monarchical-like ruling class. After inheriting power following the assassination of his father, Akhmat Kadyrov, he consolidated authority around family members, loyal security chiefs, and clan elites tied directly to his patronage. In recent years, this effort became more explicit, as his sons were elevated into public and security-linked roles, signaling a planned dynastic transition. His eldest son, Akhmat Kadyrov, was placed into ceremonial and youth-facing positions to build public visibility and symbolic legitimacy. Adam Kadyrov, far younger, was pushed more aggressively into the security sphere, culminating in his appointment as secretary of Chechnya’s Security Council in April 2025.

The intent was to normalize the idea that the Kadyrov bloodline would continue ruling Chechnya after Ramzan’s death. Yet this strategy has inherent limits, as both his sons are young, lack experience and independent authority, and crucially do not command loyalty among senior security commanders or influential clans. In Chechnya’s political system, power is enforced through personal strength, control of armed units, and Moscow’s backing. Titles and visibility do not automatically translate into real control, and as Kadyrov’s health collapses, the weakness of this dynastic project has become increasingly exposed.

More troubling are the signals suggesting active efforts to dismantle the Kadyrov bloodline altogether. The most dramatic was the reported car crash involving Adam Kadyrov, as the 18-year-old was critically injured in Grozny when his convoy, reportedly moving at high speed, crashed after encountering an obstacle. Multiple people were injured, roads around the hospital were sealed, and Adam was later evacuated to Moscow aboard a Ministry of Emergency Situations flying hospital. No official explanation has been provided by Chechen authorities in a region where accidents involving elite figures are rarely random, intensifying suspicions of an assassination attempt on the Kadyrov clan as a whole.

At the same time, reports have surfaced that the eldest son Akhmat Kadyrov fears assassination, as his father's succession would threaten entrenched interests among security elites and rival clans, many of whom would benefit from preventing an in-family power transfer. Kremlin-backed figures such as Apti Alaudinov or Magomed Daudov would be far more acceptable to Moscow than an inexperienced heir whose loyalty networks are personal rather than institutional. In that context, rumors of staged accidents, purges, and intimidation reflect a system preparing for a ruthless redistribution of power.

Even if some dismiss these developments as speculation, there is hard evidence that Chechen society is already bracing for instability. Chechen clans are quietly repositioning, and civilians are voting with their feet. German Interior Ministry data reveals a striking trend that of roughly 10,000 Russian citizens applying for asylum in Germany, around 8,000 are Chechens, despite Chechens being only around 1.14% of the whole population. Officially, many cite moral opposition to military service, but the scale and timing point to broader fears. Nevertheless, the surge itself reflects anticipation of violence, repression, or renewed conflict at home. This pattern mirrors previous periods of Chechen instability, when civilians fled in advance of power struggles rather than reacting after they began. The difference now is that the trigger is not an external war, but the collapse of a single man’s authority, which held the system together.

Overall, the fall of the Kadyrov dynasty opens the door to violence and a contested succession that could ignite a Chechen civil war between rival clans and security factions. Additionally, Moscow may reject any locally emerging leader and intervene to impose its own choice, risking a renewed conflict between Chechnya and the Russian state. Either path carries the danger of a third Chechen war, at a moment when Russia is already overstretched. What follows Kadyrov is unlikely to be orderly, and the exodus suggests many Chechens understand this better than anyone else.