Let's talk about the EU defending itself without the US.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about the EU defending itself without the US.

Because of Trump's isolationist tendencies, there's been a lot of conversation about what happens if the rest of NATO has to defend Europe without the US. That leads us to a question.

Belle, I've been following the discussions about a possible US-NATO split and whether Europe can take care of itself. It seems very divided in opinion. Many say that Europe will be fine. You even said Europe could be a major power. But the NATO boss said Europe is dreaming if it thinks it can defend itself without the US. Then of course, other Europeans are saying they can. Can you help explain the opposing positions and say who is right?

So, there aren't really opposing positions on this. I mean, sure, there are some American nationalists who think nobody can do anything without the US, but that's not a real position. What's really going on is people using different definitions for the word defend.

If the US and the rest of NATO split, the European and Canadian side of NATO would be a major power and it would militarily outspend both Russia and China without increasing beyond the current budget. The only competitor nation that would outspend it is the US. They would be able to fight Russia, which would be their immediate competitor in a conventional war. As long as NATO stuck together, a move by Russia against them would be a big enough risk to deter the action. In other words, they could defend Europe on a base level through conventional deterrence. They'd achieve the same equilibrium as say North and South Korea, but that's a defend the dirt old school national view of the word defend.

If you're somebody who has to think in terms of maintaining the security of a massive multinational alliance like say a NATO boss, your view of defend is a little bit different. You don't want to think in terms of national security. You want to tie your national security to international security. You want to create a situation where no matter what, if a conflict erupts, nobody dares consider taking the fight to your dirt.

How do you do that? How do you tie your national security to international security? Nukes, a lot of them. Literally, peace through superior firepower. That's what he meant when he said to keep on dreaming, which of course is the quote the media focused on. He meant Europe needs more nukes.

Easy for me to put words in his mouth, right? I don't have to. He said that's what he meant. “In that scenario, you will lose the ultimate guarantor of our freedom, which is the US nuclear umbrella. So, hey, good luck.

Europe has nuclear weapons, but they would need more. And they would need better delivery systems to achieve the there's no way we're invading their dirt effect. But they have the tech. They just need to apply it. There isn't a debate over whether or not Europe could defend itself in either sense. It's whether they'd have the will and be willing to pay for it and really, there's no debate over that either. If push came to shove, they would. Why? Because while the West sees itself as the greatest military powers in the world, we still take a lot of advice from eastern minds. And we know the greatest victory is that which requires no battle.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.