Let's talk about Trump and Iran, ultimatums, and chicken and waffles.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump and Iran, ultimatums, and chicken and waffles.

Escalating ultimatums started on Saturday evening. Trump posted to social media. “If Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump.”

International experts sighed because the general consensus is that Iran was unlikely to back down and that Trump's claim was likely to escalate the situation. Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts said, "Trump has no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so he is threatening to attack Iran's civil power plants. This would be a war crime."

We've gotten a bunch of questions about whether hitting power plants is a war crime. Like most things when it comes to the subject, the answer is it depends. Hitting power plants can be in bounds in some circumstances. However, it's unlikely that Trump will follow those rules given his lack of respect for the troops or international law.

So from there, Iran responded by saying it would hit energy and desalination plants in allied nations. Iran understands that US power rests in its ability to force project, which relies on the cooperation of allies. Beyond that, Iran has suggested it would close the Strait until the plants were rebuilt.

There's additional reporting that says Trump is considering putting US boots on the ground, particularly in relation to Kharg Island. Trump has been increasingly flippant when it comes to the possibility of troops on the ground.

Recently, a reporter asked him, "Are you afraid that if you put boots on the ground in Iran, it could be another Vietnam?" Trump snapped back saying, "No, I'm not afraid of anything.”

I'll defer judgment on that statement.

Then early this morning, Trump posted in all caps, "I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a 5-day period subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.

Iran's state-owned newspaper reported their foreign ministry denied that there had even been any talks. Remarks by the US president are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and by time to implement his military plans.

Neither Trump nor the outlet are really that reliable of a source concerning negotiations, or not negotiations.

Trump is desperately trying to seek an off-ramp to an elective war he started. The problem is Trump wants an off-ramp that makes him look good. He seems worried that simply saying that the US degraded Iranian capabilities wouldn't be enough.

Like most of Trump's promises, he is overpromised and underdelivered. The problem is that in this case, it's incredibly hard to sell his base on the idea that any of this was planned. It started with a very public push for regime change, then to elimination of programs that can realistically be reconstituted quickly.

Now it seems to have devolved to simply open the Strait. A strait that wasn't closed when he ordered the US to attack.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.