Why Democrats will NOT suffer EVEN IF voters blame them for a Government shutdown

[Tom Rinaldo]

Over the years much ink and airtime has been spent by the media on the reoccurring question: which Party will be blamed by voters if the Federal Government gets shut down? If history is our guide the answer, at first glance, is obvious; it's the Republicans. A brief review of the three most recent long government shutdowns, including; 35 days between December of 2018 and January of 2019, 21 days between December of 1995 and January of 1996, and 16 days in October 2013, clearly indicate that Republicans overall lost "the blame game" when it came to those shutdowns. In hindsight, even leaders of the Republican Party agree with that assessment. Government shutdowns are extremely unpopular, and Republicans, historically, receive the bulk of the blame when they occur.

But what if this time is somehow different? What electoral disaster might await Democrats in 2026 if this time the public holds them accountable instead, should Democrats not deliver the needed number of votes in the Senate to pass the Republican authored budget bill, potentially leading to a prolonged shutdown? It's here that conventional wisdom goes awry. Republicans might have been blamed for prior shutdowns, but they were not punished , in the Congressional elections that followed them. It begs the obvious question: Of what significance is blame assigned if there are no adverse consequences as a result? Political pundits routinely predict that fallout from an unpopular government closure, will likely harm the chances of the political party blamed for that closure in the subsequent national election. History, however, fails to bear that out.

In the 1996 election, Clinton was returned to office, but the Congressional Republicans who had been blamed for the prior government shutdown, fared well also, even with the head of their ticket going down in defeat. Republicans maintained their recently won majorities in both houses of the United States Congress that year. Republicans picked up a net of two Senate seats, while Democrats picked up a net of three seats in the House of Representatives.

It is worth noting that as recently as four years prior, Democrats held strong majorities in both Houses of Congress. It was widely expected that Republicans would have trouble holding on to many of the seats that had newly swung to them in the 1994 midterms, but if anything they marginally strengthened their position in Congress instead. The Hoover Institute published an essay at the time with the heading: "The 1996 House Elections: Reaffirming the Conservative Trend" which began with the observation that "Before last November's election, the conventional wisdom was that Republicans would experience large losses in Congress." Clearly, they did not.
https://www.hoover.org/research/1996-house-elections-reaffirming-conservative-trend

Moving forward to the 2014 congressional elections, following the next prolonged Government Shutdown, the Republican Party actually wrested control of the Senate from the Democrats, gaining a net total of nine seats, giving them a 54–44 majority (with two Independents who caucused with the Democrats.) Republicans also expanded their majority in the House to historic levels, reaching 247 seats to the Democrats' 188. Having been blamed for the 2013 Government Shutdown proved not to be a significant handicap for Republicans that year either.

The 2020 election proved eerily similar to the 2016 election in that regard. Yes, Democrats won the White House, but highly anticipated wide scale Democratic wins in the House failed to materialize. Largely as a result of two run off races in Georgia which Democrats narrowly won, Democrats netted a gain of three Senate Seats. However heading into the 2020 election Republicans were defending 21 of their seats compared to just 12 for Democrats. And Democrats failed to win Senate races in Maine and North Carolina in that cycle, both states where they had been favored before election day.

The 2020 results in the House of Representatives were far bleaker for Democrats. Leading up to that election, Democrats were projected by many polls to expand their majority by up to 15 seats. While Democrats ultimately retained control of the House, Republicans picked up, 14 seats and the Democrats entered 2021 with only a narrow 222–213 House majority.

An analysis of the elections in 2020, 2014, and 1996 DOES NOT support a contention that somehow Republicans benefited in those years from being blamed for the Government shutdowns that preceded them. Clearly many other issues factored into the final results, BUT THAT PRECISELY IS THE POINT. Though pundits tend to gauge politics through a two year increment prism, that isn't how most voters view the world. What most upsets them today will likely be superseded by what most upsets them tomorrow, potentially dozens of times before the next major election rolls finally rolls around.

As deeply upsetting as a Government Shutdown may be for many at the time, the anger that one generates seems to subside over time after government reopens and most if not all of the federal government's normal functions are restored. I'm not saying that all resentments triggered by a shutdown dissipate, but they do recede as other more immediate issues come to the fore when election day grows near. We can speculate on why that is, but that's the way it seems to be.

Democrats should not let concerns over who might bear the blame if the federal government shuts down influence the choices they make as the current budget battle comes to a head. Most likely Republicans will be blamed, but even if not, that isn't what matters. What matters is the shape our nation is in when voters finally go to the polls, and who is most responsible for that. What matters for Democrats is doing what is right, while standing firmly on principle and for the people who are being hurt by the Trump regime, while the democratic republic left us by our ancestors continues to be dismantled.