Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Today the number may be zero.

[Melon]

18. I think prices will rise slowly.

Some oil still flows down the Red Sea to the gulf.

It all depends on whether Iran can actually threaten the straits. They literally were hit devastatingly hard day one and didn’t shoot down 1 plane. We already have destroyers and cruisers etc always in the Straits. The 5th fleet is the protector of that area. You notice that they have done nothing in the straits. Nothing. They are shooting missiles into their neighbors but they aren’t shooting into the straits. They know they’ll lose everything in a day.

The markets aren’t reacting for a reason.
Part of my career was in a similar area in that region. Iran is not supported by the regional Arab countries.

China in the last 2 months just lost its top two oil suppliers. Russia just lost a major supplier of drones used in its war. The bigger picture is not going to be just the straights.