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https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcaprimary/who-will-advance-in-the-ca-primary/kxcaprimary-0626
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/03/us/california-primary-elections-midterms
Democrats awoke Wednesday to disquieting early returns in a solidly blue congressional district in Northern California. None of their candidates in the nonpartisan primary was in the top two positions, raising the question of whether they could get shut out of the general election. Much of the vote was still uncounted in California’s Sixth Congressional District, near Sacramento. Strategists in both parties agreed that those ballots were likely to skew toward one of the Democrats, Dr. Richard Pan, and lift him into the top two.
Still, the closeness of the returns at daybreak made for a nerve-racking morning for Democrats. It also illustrated the potential for unusual outcomes in California’s nonpartisan primaries, in which Republicans, Democrats and independents all compete together, sometimes splitting their respective party’s votes and elevating an unexpected candidate. As of midmorning on the West Coast, Representative Kevin Kiley, a former Republican running as an independent after his district was redrawn to favor Democrats, was in the lead.
Michael Stansfield, a Republican with no known campaign website, was in second. Six Democrats had split the rest of the early returns, which accounted for a majority of the ballots that had been counted. Mr. Stansfield said he had run to spread a pro-Palestinian message and that he had not purchased a single campaign sign or advertisement. “This wasn’t meant to be a candidacy where I get to office,” he said Wednesday.
Jon Fleischman, a former executive director of the California Republican Party, described the situation as fluid. He said he expected Dr. Pan to be boosted by the uncounted ballots. Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist based in Sacramento, predicted that Dr. Pan would make the general election. But he added that the race could remain a “nail-biter for a couple weeks” in California, where most voters use mail ballots and vote counting is notoriously slow. “I think he’s going to eke it out,” Mr. Maviglio said. “But it’s going to be close.”
Democrats awoke Wednesday to disquieting early returns in a solidly blue congressional district in Northern California. None of their candidates in the nonpartisan primary was in the top two positions, raising the question of whether they could get shut out of the general election. Much of the vote was still uncounted in California’s Sixth Congressional District, near Sacramento. Strategists in both parties agreed that those ballots were likely to skew toward one of the Democrats, Dr. Richard Pan, and lift him into the top two.
Still, the closeness of the returns at daybreak made for a nerve-racking morning for Democrats. It also illustrated the potential for unusual outcomes in California’s nonpartisan primaries, in which Republicans, Democrats and independents all compete together, sometimes splitting their respective party’s votes and elevating an unexpected candidate. As of midmorning on the West Coast, Representative Kevin Kiley, a former Republican running as an independent after his district was redrawn to favor Democrats, was in the lead.
Michael Stansfield, a Republican with no known campaign website, was in second. Six Democrats had split the rest of the early returns, which accounted for a majority of the ballots that had been counted. Mr. Stansfield said he had run to spread a pro-Palestinian message and that he had not purchased a single campaign sign or advertisement. “This wasn’t meant to be a candidacy where I get to office,” he said Wednesday.
Jon Fleischman, a former executive director of the California Republican Party, described the situation as fluid. He said he expected Dr. Pan to be boosted by the uncounted ballots. Steven Maviglio, a Democratic strategist based in Sacramento, predicted that Dr. Pan would make the general election. But he added that the race could remain a “nail-biter for a couple weeks” in California, where most voters use mail ballots and vote counting is notoriously slow. “I think he’s going to eke it out,” Mr. Maviglio said. “But it’s going to be close.”
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