If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon, as seems likely, there will be a massive economic crash

[Melon]

6. Why would " Diesel goes first"???

We have zero shortage of oil in the US. We are exporting now more than we ever have including refined products.
I wish I could post graphs as pictures and you can see not only the softening of global oil futures but immediately available oil. The global supply chain is adjusting. The reserves are buffering but there are still many months of reserves left. China has reserves to last all of 2026.

Consumption has decreased but also literally everyone is increasing oil production. The US, Canada, smaller producers like Guyana. Venezuela was producing 800,000 barrels a day when the US took over to now 1.2M barrels a days in only months and going up.

What I see now in a global chemical basis is that pricing spiked the last 90 days and is now quickly falling. Major solvents are down 30% in Europe and US pricing is falling.

The global economy is not running hard enough to support the elevated pricing. Supply chains are quickly adjusting and now supply demand are taking over. If the war continues for another 6 months all bets are off for oil, but on a near term basis, the world is supplied and energy prices are softening.