If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon, as seems likely, there will be a massive economic crash

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39. Futures Are Not Delivery

It’s a contract to take delivery. And futures price will always migrate to the delivery price as the contract date approaches the current date.

A futures contract is just an agreement to pay a certain price on a specific date. So if someone decides to bet oil will be $80 a barrel in September and one other person thinks it will be $150 on September they’ll lock in at $80 figuring the price is going higher and they’ll still make money locking in a contract to buy at $80. If spot in September is $150 then great, they still get $150 even if they locked in at $80. If you took a contract at a price closer to $150 then if spot doesn’t go as high for whatever reason you won’t make as much money or your contract will expire worthless if the spot price doesn’t reach that level.

Bottom line, using futures price contracts probably isn’t a good predictor of actual future prices. You don’t have to have the future spot price to match yours, you just have to correctly guess the direction the price will move in the future.