longshot prediction: the AI bubble gets popped this month by the SpaceX IPO, so get out NOW

[paulkienitz]

52. Exactly. You can't ignore warnings this big and loud.

I wasn't aware of the housing bubble in 2007, but by then-future girlfriend was, and told us it was going to come to a bad end. She saw that coming, I see this. I warned about some of the ways that AI would cause problems as far back as 2013, and my track record on those guesses is working out fairly well so far.

Here are some general facts about AI that I know to be true: large language models cannot progress to the point of genuine intelligence about the real world, generative models cannot replace skilled workers, and if a future better form of AI ever does replace human levels of skill, the result will be a major crisis for people's livelihoods that could easily escalate to bloodshed.

And what I know about the current boom in AI advancements and buildouts is: they are putting no effort whatever into moving beyond large language models and plagiarism-laundering content generators as an approach, their recent escalation of prices is still nowhere near paying their incredible costs, and in most honest businesses they have yet to demonstrate a really worthwhile boost to productivity even at their previously low ultra-subsidized pricing. In short, the chance of these trillion-dollar bets making their money back is zero.

Combine that with the fact that automated index funds are massively bought into the bubble prices of the tech companies doing all this, and there is nothing that can save the stock market from a big crash.