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https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths.php
Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
Issued April 2026
The bars show the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form.
Updates on the 2nd Thursday of each month associated with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.
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Probabilities are verified using the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), using incremental -/+ 0.5 degree Celsius thresholds in sea surface temperature departures averaged in the Niño-3.4 region of the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (170–120W, 5S–5N). The 1991–2020 climatological base period is used to define the departures.
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…
Issued April 2026
The bars show the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form.
Updates on the 2nd Thursday of each month associated with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.
…
Probabilities are verified using the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), using incremental -/+ 0.5 degree Celsius thresholds in sea surface temperature departures averaged in the Niño-3.4 region of the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (170–120W, 5S–5N). The 1991–2020 climatological base period is used to define the departures.
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