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Why do they keep including Warren in presidential polls when she says she's not running, but [View all]
people like Donald Trump say they want to run, but don't get included in many polls?
There’s something odd about the early polls on the 2016 presidential primaries.
No, it’s not just that the first primary is still over eight months away. It’s the people the polls are testing as candidates. Recent trial heat questions exclude some who say they are running but include others who insist they’re not.
Businessman Donald Trump says he will run but as of this writing appears in only three of seven New Hampshire Republican primary polls since the beginning of 2015. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has repeatedly denied she’s running but appears in five of six New Hampshire Democratic primary polls since January. Nationally, Warren has been included in 13 of 18 and Trump is in two of 15 surveys this year.
Why ask about Warren but not Trump?
...Smith noted that “the criteria as to who to include and who not to include gets kind of fuzzy.”
Opinions about polling on Warren, the avowed non-candidate, are mixed. Some pollsters think her comments should be taken at face value. Carvalho cited her repeated denials and said, “Until she indicates otherwise, she will not be included.”
Others ask about Warren simply because of the so-far-anemic Democratic presidential field. As Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, said, “I’ve given a lot of thought to whether we should continue keeping Biden and Warren in there and for now have erred on the side of leaving them due to the lack of other prominent Democratic candidates.” Besides former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, of course.
Smith has a different view on why to include Warren: “The fact that there is a fairly significant draft Elizabeth Warren campaign in New Hampshire that’s being run by seasoned New Hampshire political pros is a strong indication to me that Elizabeth Warren hasn’t really put her foot down and told them in no uncertain terms that she’s not running. I think that door is open a little bit further than Warren is indicating right now.”
Opinion regarding Donald Trump is more definitive: Pollsters' best guess is that he's not really going to run....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/08/warren-trump-2016-polls_n_7026470.html
No, it’s not just that the first primary is still over eight months away. It’s the people the polls are testing as candidates. Recent trial heat questions exclude some who say they are running but include others who insist they’re not.
Businessman Donald Trump says he will run but as of this writing appears in only three of seven New Hampshire Republican primary polls since the beginning of 2015. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has repeatedly denied she’s running but appears in five of six New Hampshire Democratic primary polls since January. Nationally, Warren has been included in 13 of 18 and Trump is in two of 15 surveys this year.
Why ask about Warren but not Trump?
...Smith noted that “the criteria as to who to include and who not to include gets kind of fuzzy.”
Opinions about polling on Warren, the avowed non-candidate, are mixed. Some pollsters think her comments should be taken at face value. Carvalho cited her repeated denials and said, “Until she indicates otherwise, she will not be included.”
Others ask about Warren simply because of the so-far-anemic Democratic presidential field. As Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, said, “I’ve given a lot of thought to whether we should continue keeping Biden and Warren in there and for now have erred on the side of leaving them due to the lack of other prominent Democratic candidates.” Besides former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, of course.
Smith has a different view on why to include Warren: “The fact that there is a fairly significant draft Elizabeth Warren campaign in New Hampshire that’s being run by seasoned New Hampshire political pros is a strong indication to me that Elizabeth Warren hasn’t really put her foot down and told them in no uncertain terms that she’s not running. I think that door is open a little bit further than Warren is indicating right now.”
Opinion regarding Donald Trump is more definitive: Pollsters' best guess is that he's not really going to run....
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/08/warren-trump-2016-polls_n_7026470.html
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