S&P 500 closed Tuesday 2/3 at 6918, down 0.8% # Partial government shutdown sort of ends # Gold & silver big up day

[progree]

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Last edited Tue Feb 3, 2026, 07:23 PM - Edit history (244)

Bitcoin is down 40% from it's all-time-high

In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.

10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.27% on Feb 3 down 0.01 for the day. It was 4.24% on Friday. It was 4.19% on Friday 12/12 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/
10 Year Treasury price: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZN%3DF/

Bitcoin: $75,512 @ 6:50 PM ET Feb 3. It was $84,009 @ 944pm ET Friday 1/30. It was $95,401 @ 533p ET 1/16/26, It recently exceeded at last it's end of year 2024 closing level, but it's back below the waterline on that metric, , It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (20% down from $126,000 is $100,800) ACTUALLY, it's down 40% from $126,000 (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/

Next Fed rate decision: March 18 (last was January 28)
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves) 1/30: 13% chance of a rate cut)
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/

How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words, but the article itself does): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com

If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com

First I will briefly cover Monday. Then on to Tuesday

Monday February 2

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump to kick off February as gold, silver, bitcoin remain volatile, Yahoo Finance, 2/2/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-jump-to-kick-off-february-as-gold-silver-bitcoin-remain-volatile-210457932.html
((I excerpted only a small amount -progree))

... stocks rose after two readings of manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly improved in January. Purchasing Managers' Indexes from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management saw their sharpest increase in production since May 2022.

The White House also announced on Monday that President Trump had reached a trade deal with Indian leader Narendra Modi, dropping the baseline US tariff rate on goods from India to 18% from 25% and removing an additional 25% "secondary" tariff after Modi agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil.

Meanwhile, this week's economic data highlight — Friday's all-important monthly jobs report — is set to be postponed after the US government entered another partial shutdown.

--- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE, February 2 -----
. . .


Tuesday Feb 3

Stock market today: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 sink as tech falters amid flood of earnings, Yahoo Finance, 2/3/26

. . . https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp-500-sink-as-tech-falters-amid-flood-of-earnings-192429486.html

I'll skip the summary today and let the interested reader click on the link above.

Be sure to scroll down the page to see earlier in the day news items

One big thing is that Trump signed the bill to end the partial government shutdown. Before that there was an announcement on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website that there will be no more reports until the government resumes operations ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/2026-february-shutdown.htm ). It still reads the same way. That means the JOLTs report and the big "First Friday" jobs report are indefinitely suspended, but I left them in the Calendar section as-is, but with a note they might be delayed.

We'll still see the ADP private payroll employment report on Wednesday, because it is a non-governmental report

----- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE 2/3/26 ----

I feel bad about skipping this section today, but have some deadlines coming up

================================

CALENDAR

Recent and Coming Up, Reports (I'm also keeping January 26 and later ones for now, I put the older ones in reply #1
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

See Reply #1 to this thread for reports prior to January 26

The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for

MONDAY JAN 26

# Durable-goods orders, NOVEMBER (delayed report)
Durable goods jump more than expected in November, 1/26/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/durable-goods-jump-more-than-expected-in-november/ar-AA1V0fWT

TUESDAY JAN 27

# Consumer confidence, Conference Board, January
Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy falls sharply in January to lowest level since 2014, AP, 1/27/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-confidence-u-economy-falls-151544532.html
below even the lowest level of the pandemic
DU LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143606137
From the source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
For graphs, click above link, or the DU LBN thread link

WEDNESDAY JAN 28

# FOMC interest-rate decision and Powell press conference (2:00 P.M. and 2:30 P.M. ET respectively)
As expected, they kept the interest rate unchanged. There were 2 dissents, both wanting a rate reduction. I haven't looked or seen any jibber jabber about how many rate reductions are expected in 2026.

THURSDAY JAN 29

# Unemployment insurance claims
Week ending Jan 24 -1,000 to 209,000, 205,000 expected, (Not seasonally adjusted: 231,181)
Continuing Claims, week ending Jan 17: -38k to 1.827M
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-21ccf4e6ebbcabbc424e2feb56f0fee7
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260129
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# U.S. trade deficit (delayed report) NOVEMBER
US trade deficit widens by the most in nearly 34 years in November, Reuters, 1/29/28
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trade-deficit-widens-most-144236696.html
* DU LBN THREAD (also of Reuters article) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143607655

The U.S. trade deficit widened by the most in nearly 34 years in November amid a surge in capital goods imports, likely driven by an artificial intelligence investment boom, which could prompt economists to trim their economic growth estimates for the fourth quarter.

The trade gap increased 94.6% to $56.8 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau said on Thursday. The percentage change was the largest since March 1992. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit would rise to $40.5 billion.
MORE ---
The deterioration in the trade deficit in November could temper economists' expectations that trade will deliver another large ⁠boost to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.

Trade contributed to GDP growth in the second and third quarters of 2025.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting ⁠that GDP increased at a 5.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, though estimates from big Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, are running well below a 3.0% pace.

* The U.S. trade deficit isn’t actually falling due to tariffs. It’s still near a record high, MarketWatch 1/29/26
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fools-gold-the-u-s-trade-deficit-isnt-actually-falling-due-to-tariffs-its-still-near-a-record-high-17412f1b

The trade deficit fell a few months ago to a 16-year low, but it was fool’s gold. The U.S. is still running a trade gap near historically high levels.
In November, the deficit almost doubled to $56.8 billion from just $29.2 billion in October.
The October deficit was the lowest since 2009 and was almost entirely the result of disrupted trade patterns tied to higher U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
More...

The U.S. trade deficit totaled $839.5 billion through the first 11 months of 2025, compared with $806.5 billion in the same period in 2024.
For all of 20215, the U.S. is on track to post the second- or third-largest trade deficit ever.

# U.S. productivity (revised) Q3 (was 4.9% in the initial report)

# Wholesale inventories (delayed report) NOVEMBER

# Factory orders (delayed report) NOVEMBER

FRIDAY JAN 30

# PPI Producer price index (aka wholesale prices) (delayed report) DECEMBER

REGULAR PPI: DECEMBER: +0.5% (Oct: +0.1%, Nov: +0.2%), 12 months: +3.0%
CORE PPI (ex food, energy, trade services): DECEMBER: +0.4%, 12 months: +3.5%

LBN THREAD: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143608234
BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods were unchanged
2/3 of the broad-based December rise in prices for final demand services can be traced to a 1.7-percent jump in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)

----- Data Series ----
PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
Core PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116 (wo food, energy, trade services)
The actual one month numbers (December over November) to 2-digit accuracy: PPI: +0.50%, Core PPI: +0.36%. When annualized, they are 6.0% and 4.4% respectively.
Below are the annualized numbers so they can be compared to the Fed's 2.0% target:

1 mo 3 mo 12 mo
6.0% 3.3% 3.0% PPI
4.4% 5.1% 3.5% CORE PPI = PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Fed Target

There is also a core PPI data series where core is defined as the PPI ex food and energy
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104

I use the one that is PPI ex food, energy, and trade services because that is the one the BLS highlights (and did so in the pre-Trump past too, so it's not a conniving Krasnov thing). Trade services, which is the wholesaler's margin, is very volatile from month to month.

MONDAY FEB 02

# ISM manufacturing - January -

TUESDAY FEB 03

# JOLTS - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey - December - now delayed by government shutdown which Trump signed the bill on Feb 3 afternoon to end, but I don't know when government reports will begin coming out again.

# ISM Services - January

WEDNESDAY FEB 04

# ADP employment (private sector workforce) - January. ADP processes payrolls for 20% of the private sector payroll employed, and estimates somehow the other 80%. It's a non-governmental report, so the report's timing is not subject to the government shutdown/startup schedule.

THURSDAY FEB 05

# Unemployment insurance claims - see Tuesday above about government shutdown

FRIDAY FEB 06

# The big "First Friday" monthly BLS jobs report that produces the headline non-farm payroll jobs number and unemployment rate - January -- This report will also include the annual benchmark revision to the non-farm payroll jobs numbers, in this case from April 1, 2025 through March 31, 2026. The preliminary revision we saw last September was a 911,000 downward revision for that 12-month period. Because these numbers were preliminary, the data time series https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth were not updated for those numbers. It is my understanding that they will be revised this time.

See Tuesday above about government shutdown and possible delay of this report

# Consumer sentiment (preliminary) - February

. . .


The full calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday February 3 at 6918, down 0.8% for the day,
and up 19.6% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 15.4% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 17.6% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 1.1% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 6845
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
# S&P 500 futures: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/

Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

========================================================

I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Monday at 49,408, and it closed Tuesday at 49,241, a drop of 0.3% (167 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 48,063

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)



I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
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